Capability template for operations and process improvement
Premortem before a decision
Before your team commits to a plan that is hard to undo, such as a move, a launch or a new system, a short workshop pictures it a few months on, already failed. The record ranks the reasons, turns each top risk into a check, a warning sign and an owner, and leaves the go decision with the owner.
The outcome
The owner signs the lease, places the order or sets the launch date knowing what is most likely to sink it, and with something already in place for each of those things. Every top risk has a check to finish before the decision, a sign that would show it coming, the point at which someone acts, and a named person watching.
A room asked to list risks tends to offer what is safe to say. Tell the same room the plan has already failed and ask why, and people name causes: the installer who was late, the phone line nobody ordered. Because each person writes alone first, the warehouse lead's doubt counts as much as the owner's confidence. The record keeps every reason that was written and never says who wrote which.
Nothing is decided for you. The record ends with a blank line for the owner: proceed, proceed with the changes, hold or stop.
Who starts the work, and when
The owner, or the operations lead on the owner's behalf, starts it a week or two before a decision that would be costly to reverse: a new building, a new system for the whole company, a product launch, entering a new market, a large purchase. It is worth the hour when the plan is big, the date is fixed and the team agreed quickly.
Someone with nothing riding on the answer runs the session. Four to eight people take part, including the people who will do the work. The AI assistant groups what was written and prepares the record; the room rates the risks and agrees the checks; the owner decides.
What they supply
- A short brief. What is being decided, the plan in a few lines, why it is hard to undo, when the decision is due, who decides, and the date the failure is imagined.
- The reasons people wrote. One line per reason, written by each person on their own before any discussion, labelled by a participant number, not a name.
- The groups and ratings the room agreed. For each group of reasons: how likely, how much harm, and how much warning you would get.
- The notes on checks. For each top risk: the check, who owns it and by when, the warning sign, when to act and who watches. Plus any changes to the plan, and the date of the next premortem.
What comes out
Two short documents, from two runs.
- A grouping sheet, during the session: every reason, unattributed, sorted into proposed groups for the room to merge, split and rate.
- The premortem record, after the session: the failure reasons ranked by a fixed rule; each top risk with its checks, warning sign, trigger point and owner; the changes to the plan the room agreed; which checks are done and which are not before the go decision; the questions only the owner can settle; the date of the next premortem and the events that would bring it forward; and every reason as written.
Where the room left a gap, such as a top risk nobody took, the record says "not assigned" and asks the owner. It never fills the gap itself.
An invented example
Illustrative example with invented data. The company, its people, its customers and every date and figure below are invented. The company is an invented 40-person distributor of cleaning supplies, deciding whether to sign a seven-year lease on a larger warehouse and move into it over one weekend. People are named by role only. First come the brief and the written reasons the facilitator typed up, then the grouping sheet from the first pass, then the room's ratings and notes, and last the premortem record from the second pass.
The inputs to the first pass
1. The brief (written by the owner)
Decision: Whether to sign a seven-year lease on a larger warehouse 12 miles
from the current one, and move into it over one weekend.
Plan: Sign the lease by Friday 13 November 2026. Racking installed in
January. Move over the weekend of 6-7 February 2027. The current
building's lease ends on 31 March 2027.
Hard to reverse because: seven-year lease; a deposit of three months' rent;
the current building will be let to someone else once we give notice.
Decides: Owner
Go decision due: Friday 13 November 2026
Imagined failure date: 31 May 2027
Participants: P1 Owner; P2 Operations manager; P3 Warehouse lead;
P4 Customer service lead; P5 Finance lead; P6 Senior driver
Facilitator: Office manager (no part in the move decision)
Session: Tuesday 3 November 2026
Reasons written privately before discussion: yes
Settings: defaults
2. The written reasons (typed by the facilitator, as written)
Here the reasons are typed sheet by sheet so the example is easy to follow. In a real session the facilitator types them in a mixed order, because the R numbers follow the typing order and would otherwise show who wrote what.
participant,reason
P1,"The move weekend ran over and we could not ship on the Monday or Tuesday; two of our biggest customers ordered elsewhere."
P1,The rent on the new building plus the move cost more than planned and cash got tight by April.
P1,Customers near the old site got later deliveries and complained.
P2,The racking was not installed by the move date because the installer took longer than quoted.
P2,"Stock counts were wrong after the move, so we sold things we did not have."
P2,We moved in the same week as a big seasonal order and could not cope.
P3,Two of the four pickers left because the new site is 12 miles further out and there is no bus.
P3,The loading dock only takes one truck at a time and incoming deliveries queued.
P3,Pallets were labelled badly during packing so nobody could find anything for a week.
P4,We did not tell customers early enough and they were surprised by delays.
P4,Phones and the internet line were not working on the Monday at the new site.
P4,Orders backed up for two weeks and we lost a regular account.
P5,"The fit-out cost more than budgeted (power for the forklift chargers, the office)."
P5,We paid rent on both buildings for longer than planned because the old lease could not be ended early.
P5,Sales lost during the move week were bigger than we assumed.
P6,Routes from the new site are longer and drivers ran out of hours.
P6,The yard is too small to turn the big truck.
P6,Pickers quit because of the commute.
The grouping sheet (first pass)
PREMORTEM GROUPING SHEET: New warehouse lease and move
Session: Tuesday 3 November 2026. Reasons: 18 from 6 people. Proposed groups: 8.
G1 Orders not shipped after the move weekend. Named by 4 of 6.
R01 The move weekend ran over and we could not ship on the Monday or Tuesday; two of our biggest customers ordered elsewhere.
R06 We moved in the same week as a big seasonal order and could not cope.
R12 Orders backed up for two weeks and we lost a regular account.
R15 Sales lost during the move week were bigger than we assumed.
G2 Racking, dock and yard not ready. Named by 3 of 6.
R04 The racking was not installed by the move date because the installer took longer than quoted.
R08 The loading dock only takes one truck at a time and incoming deliveries queued.
R17 The yard is too small to turn the big truck.
G3 Costs above plan. Named by 2 of 6.
R02 The rent on the new building plus the move cost more than planned and cash got tight by April.
R13 The fit-out cost more than budgeted (power for the forklift chargers, the office).
R14 We paid rent on both buildings for longer than planned because the old lease could not be ended early.
G4 Longer delivery routes from the new site. Named by 2 of 6.
R03 Customers near the old site got later deliveries and complained.
R16 Routes from the new site are longer and drivers ran out of hours.
G5 Stock records wrong after the move. Named by 2 of 6.
R05 Stock counts were wrong after the move, so we sold things we did not have.
R09 Pallets were labelled badly during packing so nobody could find anything for a week.
G6 Pickers leave over the longer commute. Named by 2 of 6.
R07 Two of the four pickers left because the new site is 12 miles further out and there is no bus.
R18 Pickers quit because of the commute.
G7 Customers not told in time. Named by 1 of 6.
R10 We did not tell customers early enough and they were surprised by delays.
G8 Phones and internet not working on the first day. Named by 1 of 6.
R11 Phones and the internet line were not working on the Monday at the new site.
Withheld, for the facilitator to reword: none.
For the room: move, merge, split or rename any group, then rate each one:
likelihood 1-3, harm 1-3, warning early / late / none.
Draft for the facilitator. Nothing has been rated, decided or sent.
The inputs to the second pass
The room kept the eight groups as proposed and rated them. The facilitator then supplied the brief and the written reasons again, with these two inputs.
3. The agreed groups and ratings
group,title,reasons,likelihood,harm,warning
G1,Orders not shipped after the move weekend,R01;R06;R12;R15,2,3,late
G2,"Racking, dock and yard not ready",R04;R08;R17,2,3,early
G3,Costs above plan,R02;R13;R14,2,2,early
G4,Longer delivery routes from the new site,R03;R16,2,1,early
G5,Stock records wrong after the move,R05;R09,2,2,late
G6,Pickers leave over the longer commute,R07;R18,3,2,early
G7,Customers not told in time,R10,1,2,early
G8,Phones and internet not working on the first day,R11,1,3,none
4. The facilitator's notes on checks
Today: Wednesday 4 November 2026
G1 Orders not shipped after the move weekend
- Check: get the moving company's written hour-by-hour plan for the move
weekend. Owner: Operations manager. Due: Tuesday 10 November 2026.
Status: not done.
- Warning sign: share of pallets racked at the new site during the move
weekend. Act when: under half by 6 pm on Saturday 13 February; the owner
then decides whether Monday's orders ship from the old building.
Watched by: Operations manager.
G2 Racking, dock and yard not ready
- Check: racking installer to confirm in writing an installation start at
least two weeks before the move. Owner: Warehouse lead. Due: Friday
6 November 2026. Status: done.
- Check: walk the new yard with the largest truck to confirm it can turn.
Owner: Senior driver. Due: Monday 16 November 2026 (on routes until
then). Status: not done.
- Warning sign: installer has not started work at the new site. Act when:
no start by Monday 25 January 2027; the owner then reviews the move date.
Watched by: Warehouse lead.
G6 Pickers leave over the longer commute
- Check: map travel options to the new site for each shift (bus, car-share,
parking) and talk them through with the pickers. Owner: Warehouse lead.
Due: Wednesday 11 November 2026. Status: not done.
- Warning sign: pickers giving notice or asking to change shifts once the
move is announced. Nobody agreed what number means act.
Watched by: Warehouse lead.
G8 Phones and internet not working on the first day
- Everyone agreed: order the new internet line and the move of the phone
numbers at least 60 days before the move. Nobody took it. The finance
lead thinks the line order takes 30 to 60 days. No warning sign agreed.
Changes to the plan agreed in the room:
- Move weekend changed from 6-7 February to 13-14 February 2027, after the
spring order for Customer A ships on 10 February.
- Keep the old building's dock in use until Wednesday 17 February 2027 as a
fallback for shipping.
Next premortem: Friday 15 January 2027. Sooner if the move date changes or
the racking installer's start date moves.
The premortem record (second pass)
PREMORTEM RECORD: New warehouse lease and move
Decision: Whether to sign a seven-year lease on a larger warehouse 12 miles from the current one, and move into it over one weekend.
Decides: Owner. Go decision due: Friday 13 November 2026.
Hard to reverse because: seven-year lease; a deposit of three months' rent; the current building will be let to someone else once we give notice.
Failure imagined at: 31 May 2027. The plan went ahead as agreed and did not work.
Took part: 6 people: Owner, Operations manager, Warehouse lead, Customer service lead, Finance lead, Senior driver. Facilitator: Office manager.
Session: Tuesday 3 November 2026. Reasons written privately before discussion: yes.
Prepared: Wednesday 4 November 2026, from the brief, the written reasons, the agreed groups and ratings, and the notes on checks; default settings. Reasons are not attributed to anyone.
Reasons written: 18 from 6 people, in 8 groups. Top risks: 4.
RANKED FAILURE REASONS
1. G1 Orders not shipped after the move weekend. Named by 4 of 6. Likelihood 2, harm 3, score 6, warning late. TOP RISK. Reasons: R01, R06, R12, R15.
2. G2 Racking, dock and yard not ready. Named by 3 of 6. Likelihood 2, harm 3, score 6, warning early. TOP RISK. Reasons: R04, R08, R17.
3. G6 Pickers leave over the longer commute. Named by 2 of 6. Likelihood 3, harm 2, score 6, warning early. TOP RISK. Reasons: R07, R18.
4. G5 Stock records wrong after the move. Named by 2 of 6. Likelihood 2, harm 2, score 4, warning late. Reasons: R05, R09.
5. G3 Costs above plan. Named by 2 of 6. Likelihood 2, harm 2, score 4, warning early. Reasons: R02, R13, R14.
6. G8 Phones and internet not working on the first day. Named by 1 of 6. Likelihood 1, harm 3, score 3, warning none. TOP RISK. Named by one person. Reasons: R11.
7. G4 Longer delivery routes from the new site. Named by 2 of 6. Likelihood 2, harm 1, score 2, warning early. Reasons: R03, R16.
8. G7 Customers not told in time. Named by 1 of 6. Likelihood 1, harm 2, score 2, warning early. Reasons: R10.
TOP RISKS: CHECKS, WARNING SIGNS AND OWNERS
G1 Orders not shipped after the move weekend
Check before go: get the moving company's written hour-by-hour plan for the move weekend. Owner: Operations manager. Due: Tuesday 10 November 2026. Status: not done.
Warning sign: share of pallets racked at the new site during the move weekend. Act when: under half by 6 pm on Saturday 13 February; the owner then decides whether Monday's orders ship from the old building. Watched by: Operations manager.
G2 Racking, dock and yard not ready
Check before go: racking installer to confirm in writing an installation start at least two weeks before the move. Owner: Warehouse lead. Due: Friday 6 November 2026. Status: done.
Check before go: walk the new yard with the largest truck to confirm it can turn. Owner: Senior driver. Due: Monday 16 November 2026. Status: not done.
Warning sign: installer has not started work at the new site. Act when: no start by Monday 25 January 2027; the owner then reviews the move date. Watched by: Warehouse lead.
G6 Pickers leave over the longer commute
Check before go: map travel options to the new site for each shift (bus, car-share, parking) and talk them through with the pickers. Owner: Warehouse lead. Due: Wednesday 11 November 2026. Status: not done.
Warning sign: pickers giving notice or asking to change shifts once the move is announced. Act when: not agreed. Watched by: Warehouse lead.
G8 Phones and internet not working on the first day
Check before go: order the new internet line and the move of the phone numbers at least 60 days before the move. Owner: not assigned. Due: not stated. Status: not stated.
Warning sign: none agreed. Act when: not agreed. Watched by: not assigned.
CHANGES TO THE PLAN AGREED IN THE ROOM
1. Move weekend changed from 6-7 February to 13-14 February 2027, after the spring order for Customer A ships on 10 February.
2. Keep the old building's dock in use until Wednesday 17 February 2027 as a fallback for shipping.
BEFORE THE GO DECISION
Checks before go: 5. Done: G2, racking installer's written start date. Not done: G1, moving company's hour-by-hour plan, Operations manager, Tuesday 10 November 2026; G2, yard walk with the largest truck, Senior driver, Monday 16 November 2026; G6, travel options for each shift, Warehouse lead, Wednesday 11 November 2026. Due after the go decision: G2, yard walk with the largest truck, due Monday 16 November 2026. No owner or no due date: G8, internet line and phone numbers. Status not stated: G8, internet line and phone numbers.
OPEN QUESTIONS FOR THE OWNER
1. G2 Racking, dock and yard not ready: the yard walk with the largest truck is due Monday 16 November 2026, after the go decision on Friday 13 November 2026; the notes say the senior driver is on routes until then. Is the walk to be done before you decide, or do you decide without it?
2. G6 Pickers leave over the longer commute: the warning sign and its watcher are agreed, but no level at which to act. How many notices or shift requests should the warehouse lead raise with you?
3. G8 Phones and internet not working on the first day: the room agreed to order the new internet line and the move of the phone numbers at least 60 days before the move, but nobody owns it, and it has no due date or status. No warning sign, level or watcher was agreed. The finance lead's note says the line order takes 30 to 60 days. Who owns it and by which date, has it been done, what sign would show it slipping, at what level should someone act, and who watches?
NEXT PREMORTEM
Date: Friday 15 January 2027. Sooner if: the move date changes; the racking installer's start date moves.
THE REASONS AS WRITTEN
R01 The move weekend ran over and we could not ship on the Monday or Tuesday; two of our biggest customers ordered elsewhere.
R02 The rent on the new building plus the move cost more than planned and cash got tight by April.
R03 Customers near the old site got later deliveries and complained.
R04 The racking was not installed by the move date because the installer took longer than quoted.
R05 Stock counts were wrong after the move, so we sold things we did not have.
R06 We moved in the same week as a big seasonal order and could not cope.
R07 Two of the four pickers left because the new site is 12 miles further out and there is no bus.
R08 The loading dock only takes one truck at a time and incoming deliveries queued.
R09 Pallets were labelled badly during packing so nobody could find anything for a week.
R10 We did not tell customers early enough and they were surprised by delays.
R11 Phones and the internet line were not working on the Monday at the new site.
R12 Orders backed up for two weeks and we lost a regular account.
R13 The fit-out cost more than budgeted (power for the forklift chargers, the office).
R14 We paid rent on both buildings for longer than planned because the old lease could not be ended early.
R15 Sales lost during the move week were bigger than we assumed.
R16 Routes from the new site are longer and drivers ran out of hours.
R17 The yard is too small to turn the big truck.
R18 Pickers quit because of the commute.
Owner's decision: [ ] Proceed [ ] Proceed with the changes above
[ ] Hold [ ] Stop Date: [ ]
Prepared for the Owner's decision. Nothing has been decided, sent, booked, signed or changed.
The owner reads the record with the facilitator, settles the three questions and writes the decision on the last line with the date. The record only prepared it.
Where it fits
- Operations and process improvement, which usually owns the move, the new system or the changed process.
- Leadership, for owners about to make the call that is hardest to take back.
- Project and delivery, before a project's point of no return.
- Professional services, before an office move, a new practice system or a new service line.
- Manufacturing, before a new line, a plant move or a change of key supplier.
- Logistics and trade, before a warehouse move, a new carrier or a new stock system.
- Construction, before committing to a large job, a new yard or a new site system.
- Growth & scaling, when the plans get bigger than the team has made before.
- New business lines, before the launch date is announced.
- Acquisitions & integration, before systems, sites or teams are merged.
What has to change for your company
Decide which decisions get a premortem, for example anything over a set amount or a lease longer than a year. Name who facilitates: someone with no stake in the answer. Keep or change the three rating scales and the rule for what counts as a top risk. Decide how far ahead the failure is imagined; three to twelve months after the go date suits most plans. Decide where the records are kept, so the next premortem starts from the last one. It runs in ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot or Gemini from notes you type or paste; it needs no connection to any system.
What has been checked
Fully Powered AI wrote this capability template, drawing on a published open-source method credited in its sources. It was editorially reviewed on 10 November 2026. It was tried once on its invented example in Claude on 10 November 2026, and the record of that run is published with the template; it lists the small edits made afterward that have not been run again. It has not yet been tested in a client environment. It has not yet been tested as a packaged version in ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot or Gemini.
Testing in your environment means running it on a decision your team made a year or more ago and knows the outcome of, with the reasons written fresh by people who were there, plus hard cases written in advance: a reason that fits no group, a rating outside the scale, a top risk nobody owns. The owner checks the ranking against the ratings before anyone relies on it. Pilot acceptance-test preparation sets up those cases, and when the plan is a launch, Launch checklist carries the agreed checks into the dated steps.
The full capability template
Everything above is the outline. The complete capability template is the working version: the roles, the inputs, the procedure, the exceptions and stop conditions, the output format, the reviewer checklist, the acceptance tests, the instructions for an AI assistant and what to customize for your company. It comes with a download and the link to its folder in Fully Powered’s public repository.
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